economic tsunami

[HONDO74]

America is unprepared for the "jobs apocalypse" automation will bring
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-policy ... pocalypse/

In coming years, U.S. workers -- especially low skilled, low wage workers -- are set to face a major economic disruption as automation and the robotic revolution are expected to replace millions of jobs once held by humans.

But policymakers and businesses are ill-prepared to help workers navigate the transition and adapt the skills needed to survive the "economic tsunami," Axios Editor Steve LeVine reports.

"The biggest takeaway is that the future is now," LeVine told CBSN in an interview on Friday.

"We're not prepared at all," he said, for the "jobs apocalypse" resulting from automation.

Part of the problem is that policymakers are not moving quickly enough to update the education system and provide workers with the skills that will be needed when these bottom-tier jobs are replaced by automation.

[G3750]

Congress is always at least 10 years behind the curve.

Don't look to them.

George

[v8vega]

Stupid LA goverment and maybe Calif. state I forget has $15 min. wage for unskilled labor. What do you expect?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

America is unprepared for the "jobs apocalypse" automation will bring
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-policy ... pocalypse/

In coming years, U.S. workers -- especially low skilled, low wage workers -- are set to face a major economic disruption as automation and the robotic revolution are expected to replace millions of jobs once held by humans.

But policymakers and businesses are ill-prepared to help workers navigate the transition and adapt the skills needed to survive the "economic tsunami," Axios Editor Steve LeVine reports.

"The biggest takeaway is that the future is now," LeVine told CBSN in an interview on Friday.

"We're not prepared at all," he said, for the "jobs apocalypse" resulting from automation.

Part of the problem is that policymakers are not moving quickly enough to update the education system and provide workers with the skills that will be needed when these bottom-tier jobs are replaced by automation.

This is the same hand-wringing and knee-jerk panic that happened when the first robotics were introduced in the car factories decades ago. Maybe it's the refusal to accept the need to navigate the transition and adapt the skills needed to survive that's the real problem here. Things change and those days of working for 20-50 years anywhere doing the same job forever are long gone. It's not the job of policymakers to update the education system (delusional expectation there!) and provide workers with the skills (that's on workers, unions, and parents).

As I have posted in the past, the factory of the future will be staffed by a man and a dog; the dog is there to keep the man from touching anything, and the man is there to feed the dog.

OTOH, the warehousing business seems to be booming in south central PA - all that stuff you buy on-line comes from somewhere and someone gets paid to put in in the bins/shelves, and then take it out and load the trucks, drive the trucks, and deliver the stuff. Commerce evolves and people that want to work need to evolve in parallel and move to those jobs - Amazon delivered stuff to my wife this morning using an Enterprise van....

[rogruth]

IMHO the participants on MTJ are very intelligent people. I am,of course, an exception. Several of us were involved at sometime in our working lives in education. For many years I heard that we needed to prepare students to attend college because a college education is/was so important to everyones well-being. This crazy band director would get strange looks from other teachers when this idea was questioned. It is still being pushed but for what purpose? Will it take a college degree to escort the dog that Rufus mentions above? We still need more electricians, plumbers, and all of the other types to make our civilization(?) work. The joke about the college grad flipping burgers at a fast food joint or waiting on tables is no longer a joke.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

IMHO the participants on MTJ are very intelligent people. I am,of course, an exception.

Perhaps you are the very, very intelligent person

Several of us were involved at sometime in our working lives in education. For many years I heard that we needed to prepare students to attend college because a college education is/was so important to everyones well-being.

At one time, it might have been true. There was a time time hope and a dream that one's children would have a chance to better themselves than their parents situation. That gives every appearance to have stalled.

This crazy band director would get strange looks from other teachers when this idea was questioned. It is still being pushed but for what purpose?

I'm not sure anymore - it's value has been so diluted as to make a basic college degree little more than a permission slip to apply to grad school.

Will it take a college degree to escort the dog that Rufus mentions above? We still need more electricians, plumbers, and all of the other types to make our civilization(?) work. The joke about the college grad flipping burgers at a fast food joint or waiting on tables is no longer a joke.

We apparently abandoned teaching and promoting the "trades" in favor of complaining about the immigrants that willing take up these jobs. One upon a time the average guy had a passing ability with most tools, could repair basic stuff in the house, and now helplessness is the norm.

[HONDO74]

OTOH, the warehousing business seems to be booming in south central PA - all that stuff you buy on-line comes from somewhere and someone gets paid to put in in the bins/shelves, and then take it out and load the trucks, drive the trucks, and deliver the stuff. Commerce evolves and people that want to work need to evolve in parallel and move to those jobs - Amazon delivered stuff to my wife this morning using an Enterprise van....

Amazon Warehouse Robots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLVCGEmkJs0

Amazon is replacing warehouse workers with robots. The people in the video will be the next replaced with robots as amazon is working on that now with the next gen robots with AI that can identify the item, put them in the bins and pull them out to ship.

The deal with automation is that it is moving faster than most experts figured it would.

[G3750]

This is the same hand-wringing and knee-jerk panic that happened when the first robotics were introduced in the car factories decades ago. Maybe it's the refusal to accept the need to navigate the transition and adapt the skills needed to survive that's the real problem here. Things change and those days of working for 20-50 years anywhere doing the same job forever are long gone. It's not the job of policymakers to update the education system (delusional expectation there!) and provide workers with the skills (that's on workers, unions, and parents).

It is and it isn't. The technological advances won't happen in the next 3 years, but they are coming. You're absolutely correct that acceptance of the situation and working to acquire the skills needs to start happening today. That being said, I think the sheer number of jobs that are going to be automated out of existence is not well understood. There cannot and will not be a 1:1 replacement of these jobs with technology jobs (not everyone is capable of doing technology jobs, either). The net effect may be to shrink the aggregate number of jobs. That's the real fear, in my mind.

And yes, policymakers are typically so far behind the curve that they cannot intelligently affect the educational system. Witness Zuckerberg's testimony to Congress a few weeks ago. It was clear that 99.99% of Congress had no freaking clue what he was talking about. Much of the educational establishment is so entrenched in their vested positions that they are unable to adapt as well. These are crazy times when college tuition has risen all out of proportion with return on investment, inflation, and sanity. I foresee some huge sturm und drang there as well.

Roger is absolutely correct to question the value of a college degree as it relates to employment opportunities, especially today. I don't see robots or AI replacing electricians, plumbers, network technicians, IT support or any of these other infrastructure-related professions. And Roger is easily as intelligent as any of us on this forum.

As the father of two millennial boys who are not headed for 4-year college degrees, I am very concerned. Thankfully, the younger boy is pursuing an Electronics Engineering Technology associate degree, which will prepare him for a number of infrastructure-related jobs. The older one is working at driving and delivery-type jobs. I am most fearful for his future well-being.

George

[G3750]

We apparently abandoned teaching and promoting the "trades" in favor of complaining about the immigrants that willing take up these jobs. One upon a time the average guy had a passing ability with most tools, could repair basic stuff in the house, and now helplessness is the norm.

The answer here is multi-pronged:

• Stop illegal immigration using eVerify. Employers who hire illegals should face jail time.
• Slow down legal immigration via the guest-worker visas (L1, H1B, etc.). We need to start protecting our own jobs the way Canada does.
• Push the trades hard for those not going to college. We need to make Americans handy with tools again.

George

[Rufus T. Firefly]

[*]Slow down legal immigration via the guest-worker visas (L1, H1B, etc.). We need to start protecting our own jobs the way Canada does.

I could agree to this if we actually had the US citizens with the skill sets and knowledge to do some of the jobs that we use some of these visas. I know from personal experience that I was totally unable to recruit US PhD's to positions in my research group and had to take non-citizens on H1B's simply because they were the only ones applying with appropriate skills, training, and experience. Close that option and a lot of stuff will grind to a halt - we don't have the kids going into the sciences that can compete - there's a real gap and there's little real tangible interest or support in correcting that deficiency. As for them being immigrants, some went home and some stayed to become citizens and tenured professors - ~50/50. I don't see a problem with them succeeding where our own citizens can't be bothered to try - protecting jobs that our own citizens won't do, won't learn to do, can't compete for just doesn't fix anything.

As for Canada protecting jobs, one of my success stories was from Russia by way of Australia, through a DOE lab, to my lab, to a tenured position in the US................and migrated to Canada - full tenured endowed chair Professor. Canada might protect jobs, but they are also rational and pragmatic about it.

[G3750]

[*]Slow down legal immigration via the guest-worker visas (L1, H1B, etc.). We need to start protecting our own jobs the way Canada does.

I could agree to this if we actually had the US citizens with the skill sets and knowledge to do some of the jobs that we use some of these visas. I know from personal experience that I was totally unable to recruit US PhD's to positions in my research group and had to take non-citizens on H1B's simply because they were the only ones applying with appropriate skills, training, and experience. Close that option and a lot of stuff will grind to a halt - we don't have the kids going into the sciences that can compete - there's a real gap and there's little real tangible interest or support in correcting that deficiency. As for them being immigrants, some went home and some stayed to become citizens and tenured professors - ~50/50. I don't see a problem with them succeeding where our own citizens can't be bothered to try - protecting jobs that our own citizens won't do, won't learn to do, can't compete for just doesn't fix anything.

As for Canada protecting jobs, one of my success stories was from Russia by way of Australia, through a DOE lab, to my lab, to a tenured position in the US................and migrated to Canada - full tenured endowed chair Professor. Canada might protect jobs, but they are also rational and pragmatic about it.

Martin, I know that slowing down legal immigration only works if US citizens can be recruited to fill the void. I also know we are not getting as many of those students into those areas as we need. But I don't believe for a moment the US is unable to answer the challenge. Our educational systems are not pushing STEM career paths. And companies are not investing in Americans. They are choosing to sponsor H1Bs or contracting with outsourcing firms. That is something we desperately need to fix, for the sake of the nation.

I too, as a hiring manager, had to bring in several H1B people as consultants to fill a void. So I totally understand what you went through.

In the last twenty years, I have been to Canada twice for business purposes. At the border, I was asked to produce a signed contract for the work I was doing. That was to prove that the work couldn't be done by Canadians and had been legitimately outsourced to an American. We don't do that in this country. We are taking the easy (and short-sighted) way out.

Best,

George

[Rufus T. Firefly]

[*]Slow down legal immigration via the guest-worker visas (L1, H1B, etc.). We need to start protecting our own jobs the way Canada does.

I could agree to this if we actually had the US citizens with the skill sets and knowledge to do some of the jobs that we use some of these visas. I know from personal experience that I was totally unable to recruit US PhD's to positions in my research group and had to take non-citizens on H1B's simply because they were the only ones applying with appropriate skills, training, and experience. Close that option and a lot of stuff will grind to a halt - we don't have the kids going into the sciences that can compete - there's a real gap and there's little real tangible interest or support in correcting that deficiency. As for them being immigrants, some went home and some stayed to become citizens and tenured professors - ~50/50. I don't see a problem with them succeeding where our own citizens can't be bothered to try - protecting jobs that our own citizens won't do, won't learn to do, can't compete for just doesn't fix anything.

As for Canada protecting jobs, one of my success stories was from Russia by way of Australia, through a DOE lab, to my lab, to a tenured position in the US................and migrated to Canada - full tenured endowed chair Professor. Canada might protect jobs, but they are also rational and pragmatic about it.

Martin, I know that slowing down legal immigration only works if US citizens can be recruited to fill the void. I also know we are not getting as many of those students into those areas as we need. But I don't believe for a moment the US is unable to answer the challenge. Our educational systems are not pushing STEM career paths. And companies are not investing in Americans. They are choosing to sponsor H1Bs or contracting with outsourcing firms. That is something we desperately need to fix, for the sake of the nation.

I too, as a hiring manager, had to bring in several H1B people as consultants to fill a void. So I totally understand what you went through.

In the last twenty years, I have been to Canada twice for business purposes. At the border, I was asked to produce a signed contract for the work I was doing. That was to prove that the work couldn't be done by Canadians and had been legitimately outsourced to an American. We don't do that in this country. We are taking the easy (and short-sighted) way out.

Funny, I never got asked for any documents going to Canada for business.....

But, this problem is self-inflicted - we fail to educate, we fail to reward adequately, we fail to compete. It's been a growing problem for several decades. It's also something that you can't fix that overnight. People don't go into STEM areas for a lot of reasons but the growing one for the past 2 decades now has been a lack of reward. It's a why bother situation, why subject myself to the rigors when I can do better in other areas. I honestly am very reluctant to encourage "kids" to go into research careers.

[MurphOnMillerAve]

It was reported in the News, yesterday, that the number of jobs presently exceeds the number of people seeking employment.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

It was reported in the News, yesterday, that the number of jobs presently exceeds the number of people seeking employment.

That's actually been true for years. They can't find qualified people for technical // STEM related jobs.

[healey36]

As a manager at a tech company for many years, I can tell you there's a bogus economic side to hiring as well. The tech companies like to promote the H1b process as an avenue to the best people, folks that are unavailable in the candidate pools in the US. That's baloney...the big reason guys like Cook, Nadella, Ellison and others promote hiring from overseas is that they can get electrical and software engineers from India and other countries at sixty percent of the wage scale they'd have to pay to an American fresh-out. When the H1b's run out, they simply set up shell companies in-country, hire the engineers, then ship them here as contractors on six-month rotations. These rules need a serious revisit.

Remember, the railroads went through a similar process in the late-1940s/early-1950s...it was called dieselization. It wiped out many thousands of jobs related to steam...crews, locomotive maintenance workers, infrastructure upkeep, etc. The railroad operations labor pools were slashed, and would have been cut further if it hadn't been for the resistance of the labor unions which required continuation of some jobs in a nonsensical manner (firemen on diesel-electric locomotives, for example). Fortunately the economy was in the massive postwar expansion, and these folks were eventually absorbed elsewhere. That won't be the case this time when a robot replaces ten workers, and just one person is required to service/maintain every 10-20 robots.